This post provides tweet-by-tweet twitter-based coverage of the 11th Annual Asheville Metro Economic Outlook, which took place Wednesday evening, July 28, 2010. For a PDF of the presentation given by Parsec Financial, click here.
4:31 PM @michaelfmuller: I will be live-tweeting tonight’s Economic Outlook Thingy presented by the Asheville Chamber of Commerce, starting at 5pm.
4:32 PM @michaelfmuller: It takes place at the Diana Wortham Theatre. The public is invited.
4:58 PM @michaelfmuller: So news editor @mvwilliams and I are safely ensconced in the Diana Wortham Theatre, unlike everyone else — who are still waiting outside.
5:01 PM @michaelfmuller: We will be covering the Chamber’s Metro Economy Outlook Presentation, presented by Parsec Financial, with the hashtag #avlecon
5:07 PM @michaelfmuller: The Chamber Players are doing a final run-through of their featured dance number, “Put On A Happy Face”
5:08 PM @michaelfmuller: Running through the sound check. Check Check One Two Check Check.
5:13 PM @michaelfmuller: Just spoke with Tom Tveidt of Syneva Economics, who will present the local perspective of tonight’s presentation.
5:13 PM @michaelfmuller: Tom Tveidt of Syneva Economics: http://twitpic.com/29j3hw
5:26 PM @michaelfmuller: The Diana Wortham Theatre is filling up rapidly. Good thing we have VIP seating.
5:38 PM @michaelfmuller: 11th Annual Asheville Metro Economic Outlook begins. Roger James of Parsec Financial is speaking
5:40 PM @michaelfmuller: Parsec manages over $957 million dollars
5:41 PM @michaelfmuller: Rick Lutovsky, outgoing Chamber Prez, now speaking and introducing sponsors
5:42 PM @michaelfmuller: Lutovsky just mentioned Mountain Xpress and various other lesser sponsors
5:42 PM @michaelfmuller: Mayor Bellamy, Commissioner K. Ray Bailey & Wanda Greene (County Manager), Rep. Jane Whilden all recognized
5:43 PM @michaelfmuller: Recognizing EDC members and AVL Chamber members
5:44 PM @michaelfmuller: Dr. James Smith, Parsec’s Chiedf Economist, now being introduced. Over 35 years of experience, serves on Federal Reserve Board….
5:45 PM @michaelfmuller: Dr. James Smith now speaking.
5:46 PM @michaelfmuller: Dr. Smith writes a column for Bloomberg and the WSJ
5:47 PM @michaelfmuller: Positive economic growth forecasted for 2010-2012, only 20% chance of continued recession
5:48 PM @michaelfmuller: Unanimous from Fed Chiefs & Board of Guvs: “Do not worry about another recession this year, next year, or the year after.”
5:49 PM @michaelfmuller: Only a few things could derail this and cause another recession: 1) successful terrorist attack in domestic soil…
5:50 PM @michaelfmuller: “When you do not get on and shop, the economy falls to pieces.”
5:51 PM @michaelfmuller: 2) A natural disaster on a large scale, 2) a calamity with Iran that causes oil prices to spike, or 3) action by Congress
5:51 PM @michaelfmuller: Smith says biggest chance of recession rests with Congress.
5:52 PM @michaelfmuller: @Ashevegas: http: //twitpic.com/29j9hm economic forum
5:53 PM @michaelfmuller: If Congress lets tax cuts all revert to tax system of year 2000 at end of year, 60% of taxpayers will be hit, causing recession
5:53 PM @michaelfmuller: Higher taxes will cause recession, says Smith
5:54 PM @michaelfmuller: Smith is making economist jokes. People are laughing
5:55 PM @michaelfmuller: “Shop ‘til you drop until you fall to the floor. Rest a bit and then go shop some more.” -Smith
5:56 PM @michaelfmuller: Income and personal consumption is at record high for March, April and May.
5:57 PM @michaelfmuller: Recession began in December of 2007 and ended in May or June of last year
5:58 PM @michaelfmuller: Asheville is 171st largest metropolitan area in terms of economic contribution
5:59 PM @michaelfmuller: All of us put together in region created over 13 billion in wealth
6:00 PM @michaelfmuller: Smith recommending a book called “Manias, Panics, and Crashes” as the go-to text for understanding economy
6:01 PM @michaelfmuller: Current economy has very little in common with the Great Depression, economy growing for over a year now
6:02 PM @michaelfmuller: Business investments, exports, consumer spending all strong. Things are much better than you read
6:03 PM @michaelfmuller: Lutovsky now introducing Tom Tveidt
6:04 PM @mvwilliams: As smith’s positive pitch ends’ tom tveidt comes in with #s. Avl lost lots of jobs
6:05 PM @michaelfmuller: Cool graph of wiggly lines going up since 2009
6:05 PM @michaelfmuller: Lost between 10-20,000 workers during recession. Tveidt agrees recession has passed, on precipice of adding jobs
6:06 PM @michaelfmuller: Hickory, NC has 15.8% unemployment
6:07 PM @michaelfmuller: Another cool graph showing employment change looking back 1 year ago (to avoid seasonality)
6:07 PM @michaelfmuller: Asheville amongst the lowest unemployment in the state
6:08 PM @michaelfmuller: Demonstrating that the loss of jobs in area has almost stopped. Soon we will be adding jobs
6:09 PM @michaelfmuller: More wiggly lines. Most industries supplying growth are professional business services
6:09 PM @mvwilliams: Avl down 11000 jobs at recessiopn’s worst. Now within 600 of breaking even then adding jobs
6:09 PM @Ashevegas: Tveidt will also say the asheville region will continue to rely on health care and tourism sectors of economy
6:09 PM @michaelfmuller: North Carolina added 30,000 jobs last month
6:10 PM @LocalEdgeRadio: This all sounds like a US Chamber of Commerce infomercial. #avleco
6:11 PM @michaelfmuller: There are 292 metro areas adding jobs since June 2007
6:13 PM @mvwilliams: In 2008, 292 metro areas in u.s. adding jobs
6:13 PM @michaelfmuller: Strike that last bit. The point of this is that the last three years have been crappy
6:14 PM @michaelfmuller: More and more cities are adding jobs — 135 across the US — in the last 6 months
6:14 PM @mvwilliams: In june 2009 just 8 metros adding jobs
6:15 PM @mvwilliams: Correction biggest jobs lost in avl construct, manuf, pro & biz
6:15 PM @michaelfmuller: Heath Services only sector to not lose jobs in AVL metro
6:16 PM @mvwilliams: Growth now in govt, health & leisure&hospitality
6:16 PM @michaelfmuller: Blossom Dearie sings “Put On a Happy Face” http: //youtu.be/yrkMnxtrI_g
6:17 PM @michaelfmuller: Job losses across all sectors slowing, huge increase in rate of government jobs.
6:18 PM @michaelfmuller: 5 consecutive months of econ growth in hospitatlity and hotels
6:19 PM @michaelfmuller: Significant structural change in terms of people moving here, “Domestic In-Migration”
6:20 PM @michaelfmuller: Existing home sales in AVL metro up last nine months, up 30%, home prices down 7%
6:21 PM @michaelfmuller: Unit sales have turned a corner
6:21 PM @michaelfmuller: Good lord this is exhausting
6:22 PM @michaelfmuller: Strange cartoon of old people on screen
6:22 PM @michaelfmuller: Home appreciation rates continue decline but at slower rate than Charlotte, Wilmington, West Palm Beach
6:42 PM @mvwilliams: Tveidt: job growth but very slow
6:24 PM @michaelfmuller: Finally job growth, but very slow Long way to 2007 employment
6:24 PM @michaelfmuller: Message here is that old people should not get too excited.
6:25 PM @michaelfmuller: AVL metro area had $792 million in exports in 2008, continues to grow despite other numbers
6:25 PM @michaelfmuller: Relying on traditional strengths: healthcare, tourism. manufacturing
6:26 PM @michaelfmuller: Real estate market permanently altered, new demographic
6:27 PM @michaelfmuller: Fewer rich people coming from Florida. Buyers looking for value
6:28 PM @michaelfmuller: New opportrunities: worker afforedability, workforce potential
6:28 PM @michaelfmuller: AVL workforce not typical unemployed, more highly skilled
6:28 PM @mvwilliams: New opportunities, including workforce housing
6:29 PM @michaelfmuller: What effect will run up on national debt have on WNC?
6:29 PM @michaelfmuller: Dr. Smith & Tveidt now taking questions
6:29 PM @michaelfmuller: Applause
6:30 PM @michaelfmuller: Smith: On same track as Greece…default on debt, waiting for Alan Simpson-Erskine Bowles commission to report
6:31 PM @michaelfmuller: “Government spending is unsustainable” —Smith
6:32 PM @michaelfmuller: “Debt went up 1.8 billion a day under Bush, now going up at nearly $5 billion a day under Democrats” #yikes
6:33 PM @michaelfmuller: Question unclear, woman had high-pitched voice and goofy southern accent
6:34 PM @michaelfmuller: Smith talking about bad decision to let Lehman Brothers go under, cost US economy over 5 Trillion dollars
6:34 PM @DavidForbes: From his statements, Smith seems pretty clearly from the conservative cut taxes/cut spending econ school
6:36 PM @michaelfmuller: Q: Increase in “overhead jobs” — paper pushers, government jobs, but loss of “real jobs” or production jobs
6:36 PM @michaelfmuller: Tveidt disagrees, says manufacturing jobs have increased
6:37 PM @michaelfmuller: America leads the world in productivity in terms of output per worker per year, growing faster than anywhere else in the world
6:37 PM @michaelfmuller: Majority of all people employed have jobs processing information, been that way since Nixon administration
6:38 PM @michaelfmuller: French have better cheese, wine
6:38 PM @michaelfmuller: Americans work longer — 2 months longer per year than workers in France.
6:39 PM @michaelfmuller: Forum over
6:39 PM @michaelfmuller: Positive cash flow… $57 billion in consumer cash , $837 billion pile of business cash
6:41 PM @michaelfmuller: MX news editor @mvwilliams is interviewing people. I will go shmooze
6:52 PM @michaelfmuller: Forgot to mention my standard “How many black people in the crowd” statistic. Only like 3, not including the Mayor.
6:55 PM @michaelfmuller: Lights going out. No one left but me, @Ashevegas, and a few others. Repairing to Pack’s for a frosty beer.
7:25 PM @michaelfmuller: To @jatkin02 Ha! I spoke with Dr. Smith after the forum. He admits to being a low-taxes, less government-is-better kind of guy
7:40 PM @michaelfmuller: Interesting statistic: Fewer people own their homes that any any time since the 4th quarter of 1999
7:42 PM @michaelfmuller: According to Dr. Smith, this is due to the high number of foreclosures caused by the irresponsible mandates imposed by Congress…
7:43 PM @michaelfmuller: …on Fannie & Freddie that required a higher % of home ownership by minorities who could not afford them
7:44 PM @michaelfmuller: All the housing gains of the 1990’s were erased in an instant, according to Smith
Click on the image above to download a PDF of the entire presentation. Courtesy of Parsec Financial
